Almost a year ago I wrote this post – “5 Point Plan For The UK To Win Eurovision”, defining “win” as “maybe come a respectable fifth”.

And here we are: a respectable fifth. So let’s see which bits of my advice were proved right.

Erm, well, NONE AT ALL seems to be the answer. I suggested ditching “Making Your Mind Up”: instead we expanded it. I suggested using a real pop star: instead we sent an unknown. I suggested playing to our pop strengths: well, a big Lloyd Webber ballad might qualify but only at a very wide stretch. I suggested working on our stagecraft: plonking Sir Andrew at a piano doesn’t count. And I suggested entering the semis: no such luck, though Jade did put the Eastern European promo hours in.

Of course (he says shamefacedly), what I hadn’t reckoned on was Eurovision changing the rules and bringing in juries again. My advice was for the phones-only era – and if you’ve got juries of biz insiders looking for a particular kind of songwriting then almost none of it applies. The pendulum looks like it might be swinging back against stagecraft in particular – a risky move since I’d guess that’s an element which accounts for a lot of the TV appeal.

But it’s far too early to tell – a 400-point landslide for Norway can’t only be accounted for by jury votes, after all. The size of the victory is probably down to their hitting a formula the juries loved – easy-to-grasp theme, charismatic (if hugely annoying) performer, folksy arrangement and reassuringly traditional songwriting. As other countries grok what they need to do, margins will narrow right down again. What we can hypothesise is that the juries seem to have achieved what I assume was their main aim – breaking down all but the most set-in-stone bloc vote effects. In the longer term though, I wonder if this isn’t a “beware of what you wish for” situation.